Text 5 Fuel Production

The deployment of the sustainable vehicle technology depends critically on transitions in the global fuel production system, particularly the increasing availability of alcohol fuels and hydrogen. Initially, alcohol fuels have a number of advantages over hydrogen – they can be handled relatively easily and distributed utilizing some of the existing fuel delivery infrastructure – and so play an important role in improving sustainability in this scenario before hydrogen supply infrastructure is fully developed, and fuel cells are mature. Importantly, throughout much of the century alcohols and hydrogen complement one another, rather than compete, as they increasingly substitute for fossil fuels in surface transport. This is illustrated in Fig. 8 which compares global petroleum production (refining) with production of alternative fuels over the century under this scenario.

The continuing reliance on petroleum fuels in this scenario occurs partly because of barriers to the mobilization of technologies and sufficient resources for large-scale non-fossil synthetic fuel production and distribution, particularly from biomass. For instance, hydrogen is initially synthesized from natural gas, which is a more technologically mature production path relying on a conventional feedstock. Later, synthesis from biomass becomes the preferred production route for both hydrogen and alcohols. Under this scenario, hydrogen synthesis from biomass is also combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, resulting in a fuel with net negative emissions.

Given the importance of biomass in this scenario it is worth briefly mentioning the biomass resource potentials assumed in the ERIS model. These potentials are based on estimates from Rogner who identified an annual global potential in 2050 of between 250 and 400 EJ, mostly in Africa and Latin America. This is similar to other estimates, such as in Fischer and Schrattenholzer. In this scenario we assume that this potential can only be fully exploited towards the end of the century, and that in 2020 only 125 EJ is available, rising to 235 EJ in 2050 and 320 EJ by 2100.