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DOMINO THEORY ON CHANGE IN ARAB WORLD IS “FLAWED”

A debate in the Bush Administration over whether war in Iraq can promote democracy in the Middle East burst into open yesterday.

A secret report called Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes, written by a State Department analyst, was leaked to the media, casting doubt over whether President Bush’s case of ousting President Saddam Hussein will serve as an “example of freedom” to other Arab nations.

The Bush Administration does not talk publicly about a domino theory of democracies emerging in the Middle East if Saddam goes. But a key element of the US case for war in Iraq, built partly upon views of powerful neo-conservatives in the Administration, is that regime change will serve as a catalyst for regional democracy.

The paper, produced last month by the State Department’s analytical Bureau of Intelligence and Research, portrayed the concept as unrealistic and improbable.

It argues that huge economic and social problems will probably undermine basic stability in the Middle East for years and that it is unlikely that democracy will take root.

A US official confirmed the document’s existence and its main thrust in comments to The Times. It was first revealed in the Los Angeles Times yesterday, after it was circulated to a small circle of senior Administration officials

It says that anti-Americanism is so rampant in the region that unfriendly, Islamist-controlled governments could take advantage of elections in the region to take the place of the undemocratic, but more compliant, existing leaderships.

The report gave blunt warning that political changes that would bring enduring stability in the region “will be difficult to achieve for a very long time”.

THE TIMES, MARCH 15, 2003